Big Technology exists thanks to support from our readers. Sign up today for just $8/month to help us do this work and gain access to perks like members-only articles and our private Discord server: The Markets' AI Guessing Game, Moltbook Explained, AI-Induced Layoffs?Does the market know who's winning the AI race or is it just pretending?
Welcome back to our new Big Technology Agenda Setter series, in your inbox most Mondays. What do you think of this new edition? Let us know the comments! Meta and Microsoft both beat earnings expectations last week yet Wall Street rewarded one and punished the other. Meta’s stock jumped 10% after earnings, and Microsoft’s fell 10%, its worst day since 2020. The different reactions might be sign of increased market discipline. Meta’s execs touted how AI is already improving its core ad business while Microsoft’s focused on their continued architectural buildout and less on near-term ROI. But the extreme swings most likely mean the market has almost no idea of who’s winning the AI race and is looking for any little signal of where it might head. Consider that Meta today is nowhere close to realizing its vision for ‘personal superintelligence’ and Microsoft is far away from completing the build-out phase of its AI effort. Current earnings results — though it might be tempting to read them as such — have little bearing on who might win over time. Until the AI market matures, volatility will likely be the rule. We’ll see attempts to apply big explanations to tiny things. A small slowdown in growth might be read as a sign a company is losing the AI race. A tick up in CapEx might signal it’s doubling down. Right now, most within the AI industry will tell you they don’t know whether the ultimate winners will be chip companies, datacenter builders, foundational model sellers, or the application layer. Yes, we can infer. And some big moves will be meaningful. But this is going to take a long time to sort out. It’s something to keep in mind as Google and Amazon report earnings this week, where more of the same might be in store. What to expect this week:
A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSORQuantum Realized with D-WaveD-Wave is the first and only company to offer dual-platform quantum computing products and services, spanning both annealing and gate-model quantum computing technologies. Organizations across commercial, government and research sectors trust D-Wave to address complex computational challenges using quantum computing. Under The Hood: MoltbookBots have always been a problem for social networks, but what happens when they’re both feature and bug? Moltbook — a social network for AI assistants — has had the internet buzzing about the potential pros and cons of personal AI assistants. Here’s a quick breakdown of what Moltbook is, why it’s catching on, what people like about it and what worries critics.
Is AI causing more layoffs?This year is already full of headlines about so-called “AI-induced layoffs,” from Pinterest’s plans to cut around 15% of its staff to Amazon’s announcing it’ll get rid of 16,000 roles. There have already been others in 2026, but what’s less clear is whether AI is truly to blame. One December 2025 survey of 1,000 global executives found layoffs are driven by AI’s anticipated impact instead of current realities, and a fall survey by Workday showed workers think AI saves much less time than their c-suites think. Another research firm’s report found AI cited in at least 50,000 layoffs overall in 2025. Already, struggling companies, or those that need a story of innovation, are allowing the public to run with the AI layoff narrative. It very well could be a tale of convenience. That said, it’s hard to claim AI has zero impact as CEOs and managers seem willing to ask their reports to do ‘more with less’ yet again, but this time with the assistance of ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. The Latest On Big Technology PodcastSierra CEO and co-founder Bret Taylor, spoke with Big Technology about AI agents, why he thinks dashboards could disappear, what he thinks about OpenAI’s ads, and how AI is changing the mechanics and economics of search and social.
Stephen Morris, San Francisco bureau chief for The Financial Times, spoke with Big Technology about tech earnings, Amazon’s layoffs, Apple’s AI challenges, and what’s going on with SpaceX and xAI.
You can listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast app of choice Rearview Mirror: News and headlines from last week
Thank you for reading Big Technology! Paid subscribers get our weekly column and plenty more. Please consider signing up here. © 2026 Alex Kantrowitz |
Source:
Other
Date:
Feb 02, 2026 22:11
Category:
Technical